The Thrill of the Hype
I don’t know about you but I really love the watch enthusiasm community! It brings a lot of joy to have a conversation about the latest watches, vintage watches, or speculating about what Rolex will release next. Not that anyone is ever anywhere near the mark when guessing at Rolex releases.
Another key thing that I love beyond simply talking about watches is that I love the hunt! Researching watches. Looking up which year to purchase, which reference is preferable, which piece has all of the things I want and which might I be willing to settle for if availability is problematic. Heck, sometimes close to the “real thing” and affordable are essential boxes to check in this hobby/passion. If I can pick up an affordable watch (typically that I know I can sell for the same amount or even more, later) I’m typically pretty inclined to go for it. Case in point, the Lorier Neptune IV is there a great looking watch. It checks a lot of boxes as a skin diver piece and you can get them for $300-$400 typically, when available. It’s not a Submariner, it’s not a Tudor Black Bay 41 Monochrome or 58, but what it does bring to the table is a great picece of kit for the money and is something that if you so desired to upgrade later is very marketable on the grey market.
I know there’ll be people who think the best thing you can do is keep saving and wait for the perfect. That’s fine if you have the plentiful resources, or if you don’t have a mental block when it comes to spending $4,000 on a watches (or much much more in most cases). But it’s hard to ignore that call to get the positive feeling that comes with buying a new watch and you can always justify a purchase by telling yourself you can sell that piece later for more or equal money…a lot of the time. I will admit, however, that searching and the feeling of hitting “buy” is typically equal to getting the piece in the mail. The hunt is truly one of the most fun parts of buying and watch enthusiasm. The honeymoon feeling will last if you nailed the selection of the piece. If you bought it for the sake of buying a piece, then the honeymoon will be short and you’ll be back on the hunt soon enough.
So one of the issues with the market for watches is the feeling that prices are too high and frankly unattainable. I balance my watch enthusiasm with a healthy appreciation for the art form that is watch making and design. No, I’m not going to be able to afford that new Cartier that runs in reverse, but it doesn’t mean that I don’t have a healthy appreciation for the craft that went into making it. I’m equally unlikely to purchase the new Kith Heuer collab, but I again, have a great appreciation for where it came from. The inspiration for that watch is one that is steeped in a sport that I adore and while it’s not how I’d do it, I’m also not at the helm of Tag and getting to make that call. It’s also not going to slow down the sale of such a desirable piece if it’s not my favorite watch as I’m not the target audience. Sure we hope for a re-release that’s closer to the price point of the MoonSwatch, but if that doesn’t happen my appreciation remains.
Prices continue to rise. Watches and Wonders 2024 was home to some of the priciest pieces of the year. IWC’s that will eclipse $600,000 USD, and with justifiable reasons. Let’s face it $20,000 = $600,000 when it comes to my personal choices. Sure I hope to see the watch in the metal but that’s unlikely and, again, the appreciation remains in place for that particular piece.
In Spring of 2022 the market hit its peak valuation and since then has come down significantly. That’s if you look at the entirety of the watch market. I know that prices are not coming down but world-wide inflation continues to rise and the prices are adjusting back to a more reasonable point even if individual pieces are on the climb. Grey prices are dropping and will soon be closer to where they’d have risen without a global pandemic sticking its nose in the middle of the collective economy. Capitalistic markets will continue to adjust and prices will normalize to a new norm and the fact that I still want that new (insert watch name here) will not change nor will I have been able to afford it unless I enter a profession that pays me at a level that will properly feed my watch obsession. Are you hiring?
One of the fun entires into the pricing onversation has been Watchcharts.com (Https://watchcharts.com), one way to track the market of watches and see what’s happening with particular pieces. It’s also a great way to help do your homework on watches as you can search by brand, or even reverse search which watches use a particular movement. It’s a great page brought to us by our favorite jeweler - Alon Ben Joseph of the world famous The Real Time Show! It’s a tool and it’s a good one you should check out if you’re more interested in this topic!
So are watches getting better? Is the price justifiable? Or is it hype and marketing that’s driving the prices? There are more independent brands than ever entering this space. I don’t just mean the microbrands that are coming into the market at “reasonable prices.” We’re seeing microbrand Indy’s that are making artisanal pieces that are truly high horology. They are making pieces in at price points that are truly drawing attention on a national stage. It remains to be seen, however, if a brand can enter the market with lasting power. These brands aren’t coming in with a waterfall of brands helping set them in the market. These brands don’t have a historic story to tell about how they were a watch first worn when Columbus stepped foot into Florida or wherever he landed…(it’s a joke!) So we’re not sure where they go or what their market cap looks like. My guess is that they end up getting the attention of one of the top groups and are purchased for an amount that keeps them making watches for years to come, but only the luck few will make it into the Swatch Group or Richemont’s of the world.
Watch groups are a model that makes sense for mitigating risk in having more control of all price points in a market. Auto manufacturers have applied this to their market for sometime. It’s makes sense to try and take over all levels of a market if you have the financial ability. More power to the ones that buy the story and history along with a brand. They will be most likely to come out on top. Rolex may not make the best watches in the world but they invest in marketing like no other, which means they invest in their story. That’s what sells.
None of this makes me less of a watch enthusiast. I don’t care if the entirety of the market jumps to an unattainable price over the next several years. I have some faith that there will always be an enterprising watch brand that comes into the market that will keep the peace. They will have something intriguing and won’t charge the arm and the leg and will put foward watches that inspire conversations and capture glances across the busy bar, like a perfect craft cocktail or a red out fit in the sea of black. The markets adjust and someone will create art that is attainable. I have that faith in this watch world. And I can have an appreciation for those pieces that I’ll never own or will aspire to own. I suppose that’s where the term “grail watch” comes from. True grails will never be possessed. I can desire and hope but never touch that which is unattainable.
I guess what I want is for the watch community to go a little easier on the argument that prices drive the enthusiasm part of this. It may drive the ownership portion of the watch world but not the enthusiastic part. That’s my hope. Enjoy what you can while you can and appreciate the craft. For what it’s worth. That’s my two cents to the craze that’s been happening in the market. Lest we forget that a global pandemic has forever changed us, whether we’re ready to admit that or not. I’m not deterred from my greatest admiration for the watches we get when we get them while we have them.
Thanks for reading this Watchcology article!
-Adam